Russia is facing a growing security threat from within. The return of tens of thousands of veterans from the Russo-Ukrainian war, including a large number of convicted criminals, is triggering a surge in violence, social instability and organized crime.

This report provides the most detailed assessment yet of the criminal and societal implications of Russia’s war. One of the most distinctive aspects of the conflict has been the large-scale recruitment of convicts—over 180 000 according to some estimates—who, upon their return, have committed murders, assaults and joined organized crime groups.

Nearly 500 civilians have already been killed or seriously injured by returning veterans, the majority of whom were criminals who enlisted with Wagner or the Russian army. One particularly shocking case involves a man convicted of murder, paroled to fight in Ukraine, and released again—only to kill once more. Other veterans have joined criminal gangs or formed new ones, bringing battlefield discipline and combat skills to Russia’s underworld.

The proliferation of illegal weapons is also a major concern. Gun crime has spiked across Russia’s border regions, with some areas seeing triple-digit increases. As trophy weapons from the battlefield enter the black market, gangs are arming and competing with one another by recruiting combat veterans.

Law enforcement agencies are under strain. The war has drawn recruits away from police service with higher pay and patriotic incentives, leaving Russia’s internal security forces increasingly under-resourced. Public health is also under pressure. An estimated 250 000 veterans could be dealing with PTSD, while support systems are fragmented or lacking entirely.

Drawing on previous Russian experiences in Afghanistan and Chechnya, the report warns of a repeat of so-called ‘syndromes’ —waves of crime, addiction and social disaffection among veterans. Today’s context, however, is more dangerous: the war is larger, the weapons are deadlier, and the recruits more violent.

With limited government capacity or political will to respond, Russia may be on the brink of a new internal crisis. This report provides detailed recommendations for managing disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), as well as highlighting the wider implications for Russia’s neighbours and global security.