In 2017, the total amount of opium produced globally was estimated at 10 500 tonnes, 9 000 tonnes (86%) of which came from Afghanistan. In 2018, 9.9 tonnes of heroin were seized in European Union countries, Türkiye and Norway; in 2025, that number had reduced to 5.4 tonnes. Although seizures are a notoriously unreliable indicator of drug smuggling, this 45% reduction illuminates the downstream impact over time.

Routes into Europe and the UK have changed; shifting enforcement dynamics, geopolitical upheavals and changes in trafficking tactics have elevated the importance of alternative pathways, particularly the Caucasus routes. The types of drug seized along the northern and southern routes now reflect the global rise in synthetics – global methamphetamine seizures have increased from just under 400 tonnes in 2021 to near 500 tonnes in 2023, while heroin seizures have reduced by 50% over the same period.

The demand for heroin continues to be supplied by stockpiles, adulterated heroin and new cultivation, but there is a general global shift away from heroin. The research indicates that stockpiles and availability from other sources have allowed a resilient flow to maintain worldwide in 2025, despite the compound effects of diminished poppy cultivation in Afghanistan since the Taliban ban, climate-change-induced water shortages, seasonal droughts and crop failures.

It seems that the heroin ecosystem is changing for two main reasons: first, internal to Afghanistan, the supply chain is under serious strain; and second, externally, it has a serious rival in the shape of synthetic drugs. But the picture is mixed. Understanding the changing nature of heroin trafficking networks as well as mapping the structure, scale and strategic implications of the change are vital for shaping policy responses and operational interventions.

This paper investigates the heroin supply chains that originate in Afghanistan and flow north and south, examining how they have been affected since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, and the major shifts that have since occurred in geopolitics.