A year after the launch of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, the country’s crisis continues to escalate. Gangs have increased their power and territorial control, and the mission still faces critical challenges in terms of funding, institutional articulation and coordination with local authorities, and a possible resurgence of political opposition in Nairobi.

The mission’s mandate is to support the Haitian National Police (HNP) in combating the violence and restoring security. Since June 2024, Kenya deployed around 800 police officers to Port-au-Prince as part of the planned multinational force.

However, caught between the political realignment in the United States and paralysis in international aid, the MSS is in a delicate situation. While a peacekeeping mission plan under the auspices of the Organization of American States is being discussed, the Kenyan mission lives in uncertainty. In addition to urgent financial support, a strategic redesign is required to finally establish the operational and tactical foundations of the mission, rethink its collaboration with the HNP, and enable it to adapt to the situation in Haiti, which is on the brink of collapse.

MSS falters in Port-au-Prince

In 2024, at least 5 601 people were killed in Haiti, an increase of over 1 000 from 2023. More than 4 000 of these deaths occurred after the deployment of the MSS. In the first quarter of 2025, at least 1 617 people were killed, indicating a potential annual trend that is still rising.

The gangs, united under the powerful Viv Ansanm coalition, have significantly expanded their territory in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area and parts of the provincial departments, particularly in the centre of the country (the central plateau and Artibonite). Moreover, the MSS and the HNP, whose cooperation is hampered by problems of coordination, information exchange and inadequate equipment, are facing criminal groups that are better armed, more organized and far larger than a year ago.

While the gangs are functioning more and more like armed militias, the MSS is in danger of being abandoned. In June, a group of 400 police officers is expected back in Nairobi, upon the expiry of their one-year contract with the mission. And only 751 of the planned 1 000 have been deployed. Other contributing countries had pledged to bring the total up to 2 500, but by May 2025 just 40 per cent of that figure had been realized.

In addition to political and financial considerations, the MSS faces logistical obstacles. For example, the mission’s base, located on the tarmac of Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, cannot be extended at present, preventing additional deployments. Gangs control 90 per cent of the Haitian capital, almost surrounding the MSS base, and at least 261 officers assigned to Haiti are stranded in Nairobi due to a lack of space and technical support.

As the country teeters on the brink of falling under the control of armed groups, there is a sense in Nairobi of a disconnect between the initial assurances and security challenges on the ground. ‘We didn’t get what we expected,’ a police source in contact with the contingent in Port-au-Prince said, adding that the equipment – guns and armoured personnel vehicles – is either inadequate or substandard, putting the Kenyan forces at further risk.

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC)’s research also indicates that, beyond units and equipment, the MSS lacked initial operational and tactical support to plan its deployment, a situation that continues. The result is that the design of the mission no longer reflects the reality of the situation.

International backers retreat

The MSS is also facing a major shift in the attitude of the international community, particularly the US. During a UN Security Council meeting on Haiti on 21 April, the US indicated that it could withdraw support for the MSS, and called on other donors to contribute. This appeal has so far gone unanswered, illustrating the paralysis of the Security Council in the face of US foot-dragging and the lack of a concrete strategic plan to address the crisis.

On the financial front, several deadlines are approaching, with no strategy in view. These include, crucially, the salaries of around 1 000 international staff and an upcoming payment of US$200 million to the service provider responsible for managing the operational base. The UN, which manages the trust fund for Haiti, has warned that without ‘timely, decisive and concrete international assistance’ the MSS will be left in limbo.

Kenya has adopted a wait-and-see approach. In public, state officials are cautiously optimistic. The foreign affairs ministry has stated that the MSS has enough funds in the UN coffers to last until September 2025. The renewal of the MSS mandate will be on the agenda in October, and Nairobi has urged the international community to shoulder its responsibilities. Speaking at the UN Security Council on 21 April, Kenya’s national security adviser, Monica Juma, spoke of the need to boost the mission’s staffing levels, stressing that it was operating at a ‘suboptimal level’.

Nairobi is currently planning a delegation to Haiti and neighbouring countries that initially promised to contribute police officers to the troubled nation. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is currently in the Dominican Republic to lay ground for the visit. And on 7 May, he met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where the issue of Haiti was discussed.

However, at the heart of the trip scheduled early next month are concerns over the possible freezing of funds. At the same time, Kenya’s team in Haiti is awaiting word from State House, the seat of the Kenyan presidency, on how to proceed. And according to a source in State House, Nairobi does not feel the ball is in its court: ‘Kenya has done its part, now it’s time for the international community to show commitment in light of the new development by the Americans.’

Government insiders insist Kenya is putting on a brave face. The country risks losing upwards of US$35 million in reimbursement, after spending taxpayers’ money on the mission over the past nine months. The recent killing of two Kenyan police officers (in February and March) in Port-au-Prince, with a third taken hostage, threatens to embolden MSS critics and fuel anti-deployment sentiment. However, according to a source within the Kenyan security apparatus, there is a sense that the death toll should not cause a dramatic shift in public perception.

Growing domestic backlash

Critics claim the mission was jinxed from the start. In an interview with the GI-TOC, Ekuru Aukot, the leader of Kenya’s Thirdway Alliance political party, who launched a last-minute high court challenge to the MSS deployment in January 2024, traced the history of what he called ‘failed Haiti interventions’ and painted a bleak picture for the mission: ‘Our police officers should be recalled. They have no equipment; they’re in distress. And the deployment remains unconstitutional.’

In addition, Kenyans were told that any taxpayer money spent on the mission would be refunded, but that assurance has not been delivered upon. George Musamali, a Nairobi-based security analyst, told the GI-TOC that the mission should be paused until the international community provides adequate financial guarantees: ‘Now that Americans are withdrawing, let’s get our police officers back to guard the country. Kenya cannot continue to deploy without surety of reimbursement.’

The announcement in April of the cancellation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s planned visit to Nairobi, just hours after President William Ruto’s departure for a state visit to China, has not improved matters, with sceptics pointing to strained relations between the two countries.

Last stand for Haiti

From Nairobi to Port-au-Prince, New York City and Washington DC, the international community urgently needs to recognize that the MSS is not just another intervention but potentially the last viable opportunity to prevent Haiti’s complete collapse into a gang-controlled state. The mission needs to be placed at the centre of its strategic agenda, with a focus on tactical and operational support as well as material assistance. Without this, the MSS faces imminent failure, representing a shameful missed opportunity and a catastrophic abandonment of the Haitian people. Should the MSS mission in Haiti fail, the responsibility will not rest with Kenya alone, but will reflect a broader shortcoming on the part of the international community.