In the span of just one week, from late January to early February, police in the Western Balkans seized 45 tonnes of cannabis – the largest drug bust in the region’s history. While the size of the haul signals an intensification of activity within the illicit cannabis economy, its origin confirms a fundamental shift in production patterns.

The raids also uncovered substantial weapons caches, including pistols, automatic rifles and handheld rocket launchers, suggesting that the networks involved may be extending into the territory of organized armed criminality.

The bulk of the cannabis – 40 tonnes – was discovered in North Macedonia, while a further 5 tonnes were seized in Serbia. Given Albania’s long-standing position as the regional and European epicentre for the cultivation of the crop, it would have been fair to assume that it was the source. In this instance, however, all 45 tonnes had been produced in North Macedonia, a country not typically associated with illicit cannabis production.

Before 2016, North Macedonia acted primarily as an important transit hub for Albanian cannabis destined for countries such as Türkiye, Greece and Serbia. The introduction of legislation to legalize the drug for medical purposes, however, opened the door to illicit cultivation, and quietly transformed the existing trafficking geography.

Within a few years, North Macedonia experienced a surge in illicit trade, with vast quantities of cannabis being diverted from licensed farms to the underground market. Between 2020 and 2024, local police seized 18.2 tonnes of the product, and shipments originating in the country were increasingly being intercepted in neighbouring states.

The failures of North Macedonia’s cannabis legalization model and the subsequent growth of the illicit market were largely due to a lack of adequate safeguards against corruption and organized crime. Initially, the reform was seen as an opportunity for economic development, offering the prospect of hundreds of millions of euros in annual revenue. Cultivation was restricted to legal entities licensed by the Ministry of Health and approved by the government. The sector expanded rapidly; between 2018 and 2024, 75 companies were authorized to operate in the medical market.

However, from the outset, the licensing process was undermined by allegations of nepotism, political influence and corruption. Relatives and associates of those in power were accused of, or later found to be involved in, the diversion of cannabis derivatives from licensed farms to the illicit economy.

Furthermore, as the first country in the Western Balkans to legalize the cultivation of cannabis for medical purposes, North Macedonia became attractive to criminal actors seeking to enter or expand their operations in the sector. This vulnerability was compounded by weaknesses in the vetting process: media investigations have revealed that licences issued in North Macedonia were linked to individuals with criminal records in both Serbia and Albania.

Although production is tightly regulated on paper, with strict requirements for physical security, controlled access, video surveillance, record-keeping, product quality and expert supervision, backed by regular and extraordinary inspections, the system suffers from major oversight failures in practice. Between 2021 and 2024, 26 companies in North Macedonia had their licences to produce medical cannabis revoked. However, product from licensed farms continued to be diverted into the illicit market.

The record seizures at the beginning of 2026 indicate that these dynamics are ongoing, and point to the emergence of increasingly sophisticated criminal networks. The recovery of automatic and heavy weapons also suggests that some groups may be moving beyond cannabis production into more lucrative and violent criminal activities.

In the wake of these operations, North Macedonian enforcement authorities pledged to eliminate the ‘grey zones’ and gaps in the oversight of medical cannabis cultivation. The results of these commitments, however, will only become apparent in the long term.

The warning signs from North Macedonia appear to have encouraged other states in the region to adopt a more cautious approach. Given its history, Albania has proceeded with particular restraint. After five years of suppressing large-scale production, the country passed a law in July 2023 permitting cultivation for medical and industrial use, following extensive consultations. This legislation also provided for the establishment of a National Cannabis Control Agency. However, implementation has been slow. It took the government around a year to approve the designated cultivation zones and, nearly three years after the law was adopted, licences have still not been issued, despite the regulatory framework and criteria being in place.

Similar risks to those in North Macedonia could emerge in Bosnia and Herzegovina if the country moves beyond its current restrictive stance. Although the use of cannabis for medical purposes was approved in December 2025, with the Agency for Medicines and Medical Devices responsible for oversight from import and distribution, the new regulations only permit access to pharmaceutical preparations prescribed by a doctor.

In Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia, the cultivation of cannabis for medical and industrial purposes, as well as its import for medical use, remains prohibited. In Albania, while the cultivation of medical cannabis is permitted, and its export is allowed, domestic use for medical purposes is not.

Taken as a case study, North Macedonia illustrates the risks associated with liberalizing cannabis markets in the absence of robust licensing controls, effective oversight and credible enforcement. A policy initially framed as a source of public revenue has instead exposed regulatory weaknesses, enabled diversion into the illicit market and raised concerns that extend beyond the country’s borders into the wider region.