As tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran intensify, the economic and political fallout extends far beyond headline geopolitics into the shadows of illicit markets. This panel will examine how the spectre of regime change may reshape Iran’s political economy, including the role of shadow networks, oil smuggling via the Iranian “shadow fleet”, and sanctions-evasion financial conduits that fund both state and non-state actors. We will unpack how punitive measures intended to weaken Tehran’s strategic capacities may paradoxically fuel corruption, empower elite political actors within illicit markets, and reinforce transnational smuggling and financial channels that undermine both regional stability and international enforcement regimes.

Key questions include:

• What are the unintended criminogenic effects of regime-change pressures on narcotics trafficking, arms proliferation, currency black markets, and cross-border crime?
• And how can international policy and law-enforcement frameworks adapt to mitigate the growth of these illicit economies without exacerbating human suffering?’