At least 43 people have been murdered in suspected political assassinations in South Africa since the beginning of the year, as the country prepares for local government elections in November. By comparison, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) recorded 23 political killings during the same period in 2025. The bloodiest period so far was the first voter registration weekend of 20–21 June, when six political campaigners were shot dead in targeted attacks across four provinces.

This report assesses the main patterns in targeted killings in the first nine months of 2026. Political killings and mass killings are counted to 30 September. While it focuses primarily on suspected political assassinations, it also places them within the wider context of organized crime hits, minibus taxi-related murders, personal/domestic murder-for-hire cases and mass murders linked to criminal markets.

By 30 September, the GI-TOC assassinations database had recorded 205 targeted-killing incidents for 2026 (see the next section for how the data is compiled). The figures point to a significantly higher-risk period before the polls. A number of developments warrant closer attention:

• Political assassinations increased ahead of the 2026 local government elections. The database records a total of 45 political attacks between 1 January and 30 September 2026, in which at least 43 people were killed. This is already higher than the full-year political totals for the 2021 municipal election year (30), the 2024 national election year (33) and 2025 (31), and already exceeds the previous highest annual figures in the monitoring series since 2015 – 2019 (42) and 2022 (40) – with the highest-risk months still ahead as contests for political power gather pace.
• Of the total number of political attacks recorded in the database, 41 people were killed in 36 attacks directed at political party officials, ward councillors, members of civic organizations and movements, and traditional leadership (including Sinovuyo Dyokwe, a Democratic Alliance [DA] candidate, whose killing the database records as organized crime).
• The June 2026 voter registration weekend was the year’s deadliest for political hits. June recorded 40 incidents across all assassination categories, including 12 political cases. The 20–21 June registration weekend was the bloodiest point, with five political deaths in four provinces.
• Organized crime hits remain the largest category. The database records 78 organized crime incidents in the first nine months of 2026, exceeding the 44 recorded in the whole of 2025. Thirty-three were in the Western Cape province, many linked to gang violence.
• Justice-sector targets are a significant concern. Fourteen incidents involved people linked to the justice system, including police officers, witnesses, whistle-blowers and an attorney. These attacks undermine the criminal justice system and weaken investigations, prosecutions and public confidence in the state.
• Educators are emerging as targets. Five attacks on school staff in the first nine months of 2026, three of them fatal, bear the marks of a hit. They followed three fatal attacks, on principals and a deputy principal, in the last two months of 2025. No motive has been recorded for most of the killings, although some of them may be linked to disputes and contestation over posts inside the schools.
• Minibus taxi-related assassinations are lower than past peaks but remain a key vector for violence. The database records 45 taxi incidents in the first nine months of 2026, but because it relies on press reporting, media statements and other open sources, this is probably an undercount. The count is below the 2018 peak, but taxi-sector violence still matters because parts of the industry have supplied firearms and experienced shooters for political and organized crime hits.
• Personal hits are the smallest category. Seven personal-hit incidents have been recorded so far, but that figure may change as unresolved cases, or cases that appear at face value to have other motives, move into specific categories when more evidence becomes available.
• Mass killings linked to criminal markets are being tracked separately and pose a significant and growing state security concern. The GI-TOC recorded 45 such incidents between 1 January and 30 September 2026, in which at least 210 people were killed and at least 79 wounded. Twenty-six were in the Western Cape, 24 in the Cape Town metropolitan municipality. Where a market could be identified, most are linked to gangs, taxi conflict, illegal mining or extortion.