This report presents the first comprehensive longitudinal survey of lethal political violence in Brazil, documenting patterns of political assassination, attempted assassination and credible death threats over two decades of intense political conflict. Covering the period from 2003 to January 2023, the study uncovers 1,228 cases involving both institutional actors (politicians) and non-institutional political actors (activists).

Political violence is an emerging threat around the world. As an established democracy that has suffered from high levels of violence and criminality for decades, Brazil is at the forefront of this rising global trend. In fact, several cases of political assassination in Brazil have made headlines around the world over the past decade, including the 2018 assassination of Marielle Franco, a city councillor in Rio de Janeiro. Although the case received ample media coverage, this report reveals that it was not an exceptional event.

In fact, the research shows that lethal political violence r has become disturbingly routine in Brazil. On average, Brazil recorded 61.4 cases of lethal political violence per year during the period analysed. This figure poses urgent questions regarding the efforts to consolidate democratic institutions in Brazil amidst a context of rampant political violence.

Politicians account for the majority of victims, representing 63.1% of all cases, while activists make up 35.7%. Local politicians are disproportionately affected, and leaders are targeted more frequently than other political actors. Contrary to assumptions that institutional positions provide protection, the findings show that visibility and office do not shield political actors from lethal violence.

When rates are calculated per million voters, the North of Brazil, which almost fully encompasses the Amazon region, emerges as the most affected region, with a rate more than five times higher than other regions. Roraima, Mato Grosso do Sul and Pará are among the deadliest states for activists, while Alagoas stands out for politicians. Small municipalities face particularly high risks, reflecting weaker state presence, personalized power structures and intense land-related conflicts.

The report also documents where and how lethal political violence occurs. Most cases take place in urban areas, and over half of assassinations occur in visible public spaces. Firearms are used in 87.5% of assassinations, indicating that political assassinations are perpetrated by professional hired killers.

The research also reveals that political assassinations are the result of two types of conflict: institutional electoral disputes and land ownership conflicts. The former primarily affect politicians, while the latter disproportionately target activists, particularly in contested arenas such as occupied farms and Indigenous or environmental reserves.

By systematically mapping patterns of lethal political violence, this report provides critical evidence of how political conflicts in Brazil escalate to murder, highlighting the urgency of policy responses to protect democratic activity and political participation.