The global shift towards renewable energy and digital technologies has sparked a new scramble for resources. Critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel and lithium – essential to renewable energy systems, emissions-reduction technologies, and the aerospace and defence industries – are now vital for broader economic development. Against this backdrop, the 2026 Investing in African Mining Indaba conference, one of the world’s largest mining conventions, will take place in South Africa in February. The decisions made by governments, investors and industry leaders at the event will shape mineral supply chains for decades to come.

The rising demand for critical minerals has created parallel opportunities for organized crime. The latest Global Organized Crime Index offers a stark warning: in 2025, 73 countries – almost 40% – experienced significant to severe levels of criminality relating to non-renewable resources. The regions most at risk are Africa and Asia, which contain some of the world’s most important critical mineral deposits. But not only mineral-rich countries are affected. Processing and manufacturing hubs, as well as areas with limited resources but high levels of corruption and criminality, are also under threat.

The paradox of plenty

In an effort to reinforce or establish supply chains, many countries are venturing into new territories with new partners. In doing so, some are relaxing oversight, entering into opaque deals, or turning a blind eye to illicit practices, particularly in conflict-affected areas. If these efforts are left unchecked, past mistakes could be repeated, perpetuating the so-called resource curse, whereby countries with valuable natural assets become more susceptible to corruption, conflict and instability.

Another key consideration in the regulation of critical mineral supply chains is geopolitical influence. China currently dominates the global market, controlling around 60% of refining, 68% of lithium imports and 85% of rare earth processing. However, the Minerals Security Partnership Forum, a multilateral initiative driven by the EU and the US, does not count China among its members. This has significant knock-on effects for supply chains and the development of new markets, particularly given that China is also facing escalating levels of organized crime. In the 2025 Organized Crime Index, for instance, China’s score for non-renewable resource crimes increased more than that of any other country.

A full-spectrum threat

These examples demonstrate the growing recognition that criminality in the extractive industry encompasses more than just illegal mining; it extends throughout the entire mineral and metal supply chain. This includes corruption in the allocation of concessions and the enforcement of environmental regulations, the smuggling and misdeclaration of mineral shipments, the laundering of stolen and illegally mined minerals, and the theft of in-use metals, such as copper cabling.

Mining and processing critical minerals often requires sophisticated technology and high investment. As a result, organized crime in this sector is multifaceted, with layered structures ranging from exploited frontline labour to well-resourced organizers able to conceal illicit activities within legitimate businesses and cross-border trade. This complex web of criminality and corruption undermines efforts to source minerals responsibly and promote good governance.

The latest data from the Global Organized Crime Index shows that crime involving non-renewable resources is more closely correlated to the presence of state-embedded criminal actors than any other type of criminal activity. Corporations are also key participants, as their facade of legitimacy prevents detection.

In addition, the frequent co-occurrence of critical minerals facilitates misdeclaration, concealment and laundering. Mining operations can extract multiple minerals while declaring only one. During transport, exporters can present low-grade samples to sampling technicians while higher-grade materials are loaded deeper into trucks to bypass detection. At smelters and refineries, illicit ore can be blended with legitimately mined material to hide its origin.

As it is difficult to smuggle bulky commodities such as critical mineral ore and semi-processed metals over long distances, criminal networks usually launder these close to the source, using falsified documents, mislabelling and front companies. Smelters and scrap metal dealers are at the centre of these activities, yet they remain among the least regulated elements in the supply chain. GI-TOC research also points to warehouse zones and seaports as key laundering and trafficking nodes. Yet most border authorities lack the sophisticated technology and high levels of professional expertise required to regulate this billion-dollar trade.

Conflict as a threat multiplier

Another key area of concern is the intersection of critical minerals, organized crime and armed conflict. The link between these factors is emphasized by the strong negative correlation between countries with concerning natural resource crime scores on the Global Organized Crime Index and the 2025 Global Peace Index. The situation in Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a vivid example. In April 2024, the armed rebel group M23 seized control of the town, which produces around 15% of the world’s coltan. UN reports have confirmed that the group is smuggling the mineral into Rwanda, where international concentrate traders continue to purchase it.

Moreover, state-linked or state-tolerated geostrategic positioning is becoming more common. In Myanmar, for instance, the Burmese military is permitting Chinese-owned companies to carry out environmentally destructive rare-earth mining in Indigenous territories with little to no oversight. These operations sometimes involve ethnic armed organizations, and, while it is unclear how the profits are used, it is highly likely that they are funding conflict actors. The political, social and economic implications for the Mekong region and beyond could be disastrous.

A dual strategy for responsible minerals

The challenges facing critical mineral supply chains require a two-pronged approach: supporting the development of a resilient and responsible industry, while safeguarding it against organized crime and corruption. It is crucial that Indaba 2026 addresses these dual concerns.

The first goal is clearly set out in the G20 Critical Minerals Framework. Promoting environmental, social and governance standards, securing sustainable investment, and investing in innovation and circularity are all essential actions. In addition, the role of artisanal and small-scale mining must be taken into account to achieve development gains. The informal economy is not synonymous with criminality. With the right support, including realistic licensing, access to finance, technical training and legal buyers, artisanal and small-scale miners can become partners in transparency and the first line of defence against organized crime in the sector.

Yet without tackling organized crime and corruption, any short-term gains face severe long-term risks. Knowledge gaps must be addressed, legislative and regulatory loopholes exploited by criminal groups must be closed, and, critically, oversight at key chokepoints in supply chains must be strengthened. There is an urgent need for dedicated regulation of mid-stream actors, as well as investment in mineral-specific equipment, outbound sampling, co-product detection, geological expertise and data matching between customs, mining ministries and banks. Without the ability to physically test or digitally trace what is moving across borders, the meaningful regulation of critical mineral exports is impossible. Given these challenges, the relevant national financial intelligence units should also be empowered to collaborate on investigations.

As countries, companies and investors gather at Indaba 2026 to safeguard ongoing access to critical minerals, we must acknowledge that a stable supply does not guarantee responsible practices. If international markets continue to absorb minerals of dubious origin and due diligence remains superficial, organized crime and corruption will flourish, with devastating consequences. However, by facing these challenges collectively and head-on, we can build supply chains that are not only secure but also transparent, fair, conflict-free and capable of delivering genuine developmental benefits.

This analysis is part of the GI-TOC’s series of articles delving into the results of the Global Organized Crime Index. The series explores the Index’s findings and their effects on policymaking, anti-organized crime measures and analyses from a thematic or regional perspective.