Counterfeit agricultural products, from fake seeds and adulterated fertilizers to unregistered chemicals and vaccines, are one of Uganda’s most damaging yet underacknowledged economic challenges. Their consequences reach far beyond the individual farmer: with roughly 70% of the population dependent on agriculture for employment, fraudulent products threaten food security, productivity and the resilience of the wider economy.

Fertilizers are a particularly high‑risk segment of this market, as the sector is price sensitive and heavily dependent on imports, and the quality of the product is difficult for farmers to assess.

These vulnerabilities are compounded by Uganda’s deteriorating soil conditions. Sustained nutrient depletion has left large areas of land dependent on external inputs to stay viable, meaning that for millions of smallholder farmers, fertilizers and agrochemicals are a necessity rather than a luxury. And as demand for affordable products grows, so too does the scope for criminal exploitation.

Uganda and the wider counterfeit goods economy

Globally, the trade in counterfeit goods has historically been considered a low-priority issue, largely overlooked by policymakers, law enforcement agencies and researchers. According to the latest iteration of the Global Organized Crime Index, however, the scale of the market has expanded rapidly in recent years – a concern that sharpens in areas where counterfeit goods threaten public health and security.

In 2025, the trade in counterfeit goods received a global criminality score of 5.09, up from 4.98 in 2023. East Africa was among the five most affected regions, with a score of 6.22. Uganda stood out even more sharply, with a score of 7.50 – well above the global and regional averages.

According to official national research, over half of the products sold on the Ugandan market are counterfeit, 90% of which are substandard. The trade results in annual tax losses of up to 6 trillion Ugandan shillings (UGX), as well as losses of up to UGX4 billion for local industry.

The products most affected include medicines, food and drink, cosmetics, electronics and construction materials. In the agricultural sector, estimates indicate that 30‒50% of seeds and more than 60% of pesticides are fake. There have also been cases of fraudulent vaccines and drugs being linked to animal deaths and increased susceptibility to disease, with direct implications for farm productivity and income.

In 2021, Uganda’s Committee on Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries raised concerns about the market being ‘flooded with counterfeit agrochemicals’, and emphasized the lack of effective inspection and enforcement capabilities to regulate products and curb the activities of unauthorized dealers. With nearly 46% of agro-input businesses operating without national registration, however, effective oversight and traceability are limited. And as recent media reports, enforcement operations and statements by farmers and agricultural cooperatives indicate, the trend is not slowing.

Market dynamics and structural vulnerabilities

Although the Ugandan government has started commissioning domestic fertilizer processing plants in recent years, the country remains largely dependent on external supply. The two main inorganic fertilizers on the market, urea and NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), are imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Malaysia, as well as neighbouring countries like Kenya.

Imports were valued at approximately US$54.75 million in 2024. Volumes have fluctuated over time, exceeding 100 000 tonnes in 2018 before declining to around 67 000 tonnes in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available.

The use of fertilizer in Uganda is low compared to global rates, mainly due to cost. The price of a 50-kilogram bag of phosphorous fertilizer, for instance, increased from UGX93 000 (US$25) in 2019 to UGX200 000 (US$53) today. And prices are expected to rise further in response to shipping blockades in the Gulf.

Although verifiable comparative prices for counterfeit fertilizers are difficult to obtain, GI-TOC research indicates that fake products are typically 10–20% cheaper than the genuine article, although their production costs are significantly lower. A counterfeit bag that takes UGX15 000 (US$4) to produce, for instance, could be sold for more than UGX120 000 (US$32).

Quality aside, genuine fertilizers are simply unaffordable for many farmers in Uganda’s low-income economy. While the government has supported subsidy programmes in the past, the current lack of direct support means fertilizers are likely to remain out of reach for most smallholdings.

An organized criminal economy

Although Uganda’s counterfeit agricultural inputs market operates through informal networks, it is a well-organized and highly coordinated criminal enterprise. Key actors include licensed companies that distribute both genuine and fake products, wholesalers that infiltrate legitimate supply chains, compromised retailers, and corrupt enforcement officials who facilitate cross-border movement and market entry. Profit margins are high as production costs are low, and the market generates attractive returns.

Counterfeit fertilizers are typically produced to imitate genuine products, either by using fake labels or by repackaging in original containers. Substandard fertilizers, by contrast, are genuine products that are diluted with other substances and sold as authentic. Urea fertilizers, for instance, are often mixed with sand, while NPK is diluted with fillers such as ash or clay.

Criminal networks target rural and remote areas where there is a high demand for agricultural supplies, oversight is low and knowledge of how to assess product quality is limited. Farmers who purchase fake products fall broadly into two groups: those who unknowingly buy counterfeits, and those who deliberately opt for the cheaper alternative due to financial constraints or limited access to verified suppliers.

Regulatory and enforcement responses – and their limits

In an effort to address the issue of counterfeit agricultural products, Uganda has developed an electronic traceability system to monitor chemicals throughout the supply chain, although it has yet to be implemented. Legislative reforms are also in process, including a review of the Agricultural Chemicals (Control) Act to introduce new and tougher penalties. In 2021, the government launched joint operations involving the police, the State House Anti-Corruption Unit and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries.

However, the effectiveness of these interventions is undermined by weak market surveillance and a lack of sufficient laboratories and adequate equipment for mandatory testing and import certification. In order to gain control of the situation, cooperation between the agriculture ministry, the Uganda National Bureau of Standards, the police and the Uganda Revenue Authority will be essential.

The persistence of the counterfeit agricultural inputs market thus reflects the deeper structural deficiencies that enable illicit actors to infiltrate legitimate supply chains. Without improved coordination, monitoring and quality control, counterfeit fertilizers are likely to remain a fixture of the trade, with continued implications for agricultural productivity and economic resilience.