Climate change and organized crime are increasingly interconnected global challenges. In the Pacific Islands, where climate change is a tangible and immediate existential threat, their intersection has profound implications for resilience, sustainable development, livelihoods, food security, and the rule of law. This report examines how climate change and organized crime form a mutually reinforcing cycle that erodes stability across the region.

The study highlights how sea-level rise, extreme weather events, coastal erosion, inundation, and the degradation of coral reef ecosystems are reshaping life across the Pacific. These effects undermine agricultural systems, threaten staple crops, impact freshwater sources, and accelerate displacement. Climate change is recognized by Pacific leaders as “the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and well-being of Pacific peoples,” and its broader security implications are increasingly central to regional discussions.

At the same time, organized crime in the Pacific Islands is growing in scale, diversification, sophistication and harm. The region’s largest organized criminal markets include fauna crimes (as well as financial crimes and human trafficking), with illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing and illegal logging among the most widespread forms of environmental crime. These crimes contribute directly to environmental degradation by reducing carbon sequestration, damaging ecosystems, and threatening biodiversity. Weak monitoring and regulatory systems are exploited by criminal networks, which also benefit from corruption among complacent officials, enabling illegal activities to go undetected or unpunished.

The report identifies direct and indirect intersections between climate change and organized crime. Climate change intensifies existing vulnerabilities, creating conditions that enable illicit activities. Climate-induced displacement increases vulnerability to human trafficking, while extreme weather events destroy critical infrastructure and strain government capacity. Declines in fish stocks, reduced habitable land, and pressure on water and food security raise the risk of disputes, social instability and exploitation. Criminal actors can take advantage of these conditions, including through labour exploitation, human trafficking and the illegal control of diminishing natural resources.

Corruption is highlighted as a key enabler in this nexus. The diversion of climate finance, weakened regulations, misappropriation of public funds, and impunity for violence against environmental defenders all undermine effective climate action and enable organized criminal networks. The report notes cases such as multimillion-dollar fraud schemes, misuse of public climate funds and risks associated with citizenship schemes and digital nation initiatives.

Looking ahead, the report outlines four likely future risks: illicit exploitation of new natural resources such as deep-sea mining; exploitation of climate adaptation measures; climate change-induced human smuggling; and environmental degradation resulting from domestic drug production. These developments underscore the urgent need to “crime-proof” climate interventions, innovations and financing.

The report concludes with a call for strengthened governance, enhanced monitoring and enforcement, increased transparency in resource management and climate finance, and coordinated regional and international policy responses. It stresses the importance of locally led adaptation initiatives, indigenous knowledge, and documenting loss and damage. By understanding the intersection of climate change and organized crime, stakeholders can better anticipate, prevent and mitigate risks that threaten the region’s future.