EAS-Obs

Corruption and organized crime in Moldova

Caught in transit

...ctured networks that play supporting roles in trades organized and financed abroad. The country’s organized crime profile remains notable through its position on routes running from and through ukraine towards the European Union, above all for cigarette smuggling. Other key findings include that the war has created a new market in smuggling conscription-age men out of Ukraine, while trafficking of ...

Posted on 08 Oct 2026

Author(s): Liam O’Shea

Global Initiative

How drones are exposing the limits of international arms control 

...ope have long benefited from the plentiful supply of AKs from the former Yugoslavia, and are similarly now adapting to the widespread availability of unmanned aerial vehicles diverted from the war in ukraine. Seizures of illicit weapons in the region increasingly include both AK pattern rifles and drones. In July 2026, an Italian prosecutor warned that mafia groups were supplementing their stocks of ex-...

Posted on 20 Aug 2026

Author(s): Paddy Ginn

Global Initiative

Democratizing cybercrime: How sophisticated AI systems are empowering a new generation of cybercriminals 

...cept of loss of control remains largely theoretical. AI-enabled cyber-attacks, however, can – and have –escalated far beyond their intended scope. One notorious example was the NotPetya attack on ukraine’s infrastructure in 2017, which was attributed to the Sandworm (APT44) unit within the Russian military. Disguised as ransomware but operating as self-propagating wiper malware, NotPetya reprodu...

Posted on 31 Mar 2026

Sanctions and organized crime, EAS-Obs

Stemming the tide: Arms trafficking dynamics in Central and South-Eastern Europe

Stemming the tide

...nd Czech firearms and ammunition reached the Russian market through intermediary states despite sanctions.  Another central challenge concerns the future security environment shaped by the war in ukraine. Current evidence does not indicate substantial Ukrainian weapons inflows into Poland, the Czech Republic or Slovakia. However, the scale of weapons circulating during the conflict creates a struct...

Posted on 17 Mar 2026

Author(s): Trpe Stojanovski, Aleksandar Srbinovski

EUR-Obs

European Drug Trends Monitor

European Drug Trends Monitor

... synthetic opioids, the partial legalization of cannabis in some countries and the rise in synthetic stimulants such as synthetic cathinones, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s war against ukraine. As drug markets rapidly transform, with consequences for public health, criminal dynamics and related violence, the European Drug Trends Monitor seeks to provide up-to-date analysis to inform pub...

Posted on 09 Mar 2026

Global Organized Crime Index, EUR-Obs

Global Organized Crime Index 2025 – Europe Overview

Global Organized Crime Index 2025

...itern ihre Reichweite auf eine größere Anzahl vulnerable Populationen und erweitern ihre Attraktivität, wodurch die Rekrutierung junger Menschen zu einem dringenden Anliegen wird. Der Krieg in der ukraine ist eine Quelle der Entwicklung von Bedrohungen für die innere Sicherheit Europas und stellt einen potenziell fruchtbaren Boden für zunehmende kriminelle Aktivitäten dar. Seit der groß angelegten...

Posted on 25 Feb 2026

EUR-Obs

Smoke rings: Changing dynamics of Europe’s illicit tobacco trade since 2022

Smoke rings

...rated in high-tax jurisdictions such as the UK, France and Germany. Suppliers in Eastern European states with large-scale tobacco production and low cigarette prices —including Belarus, Moldova and ukraine— capitalized on high price differentials. In 2019, one out of four illicit cigarettes consumed in Europe originated in these post-Soviet states. By 2023, however, up to 60% of illicit tobacco consu...

Posted on 16 Feb 2026

Author(s): Maria Khoruk, Sarah Fares

WEA-Obs

The implications of the US air strikes in Nigeria

Posted on 09 Jan 2026

Author(s): Kingsley L. Madueke, Lucia Bird Ruiz-Benitez de Lugo

Global Initiative

A conference of contradictions in Hanoi

...ilateralism. Several Western representatives chose not to take part in the group photograph due to his presence, as he is subject to UK and US sanctions as a result of Russia’s war of aggression in ukraine. All of this reveals the fragile ecosystem behind the multitude of signatures, and indicates a lack of confidence and common vision among the states and stakeholders engaged in the process. Buildi...

Posted on 18 Nov 2025

Author(s): Ian Tennant

EAS-Obs

Crime by drone: A new paradigm for organized crime

Crime by drone

...tility. Mexican cartels, for instance, have long used drones to smuggle drugs, conduct reconnaissance and drop improvised explosives. But the range, complexity and strategic use of drones observed in ukraine mark a turning point, a transformation that could have significant consequences for organized crime worldwide. The warning signs are already here. In October 2025, reports emerged of a Mexican car...

Posted on 30 Oct 2025

Author(s): Paddy Ginn, Alex Goodwin