EAS-Obs

Ukraine Risk Bulletin #1

Observatory of Illicit Markets and the Conflict in Ukraine

...Risk Bulletin Download PDF Observatory of Illicit Markets and the Conflict in ukraine Issue 1 November 2023 Summary highlights Monitoring illicit arms flows from the conflict in Ukraine. The huge influx of weapons into Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022 h...

Posted on 14 Nov 2023

EAS-Obs

Reconstructing Ukraine: Context-tailored approaches to corruption

Reconstructing Ukraine

...The ongoing conflict in ukraine has caused damage that has been estimated to be up to US$135.9 billion. However, the Ukrainian Government believes it will cost around US$750 billion for complete reconstruction. Corruption, the misu...

Posted on 30 Oct 2023

Author(s): Katherine D. Wilkins

EAS-Obs

Scam call centres in Ukraine

...If there is one thing you can say about scammers, it is that they have a good understanding of current affairs. Whether it be the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of ukraine, news events are a potential weapon for scammers.   In 2022, as sanctions were imposed on Russia, gas prices rose and blasts damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the idea of a ‘freezing Europe’...

Posted on 21 Oct 2023

Author(s): Jack Meegan-Vickers

EAS-Obs, SEE-Obs

Borderline: Impact of the Ukraine war on migrant smuggling in South Eastern Europe

Borderline

...The war in ukraine has spurred the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the Second World War. According to EU border and coastguard agency Frontex, by the end of 2022, 15 million Ukrainian citizens had fled to Europe...

Posted on 29 Sep 2023

Author(s): Tihomir Bezlov, Atanas Rusev, Dardan Kocani

Global Organized Crime Index

Stronger together: Can responses to the war in Ukraine pave the way for further international cooperation on organized crime?

...In the wake of the Russian invasion of ukraine, Europe showed unprecedented unity in providing Ukraine with comprehensive and sustained support. As international cooperation has become a significant tool in countering organized crime, Europe’s ...

Posted on 31 Aug 2023

EAS-Obs, SEE-Obs

Fuel to the fire: Impact of the Ukraine war on fuel smuggling in South Eastern Europe

Fuel to the fire

...one, for example, the projected value of illegal fuel in 2019 reached approximately €0.5 billion, resulting in significant budget losses of €250 million. In the wake of the Russian invasion of ukraine and the Libyan electoral crisis, both of which involved major oil-producing countries, the UN extended measures to combat illicit petroleum exports from Libya in July 2022. The EU also imposed bans o...

Posted on 07 Aug 2023

Author(s): Sasa Djordjevic

EAS-Obs, SEE-Obs

Cash is king: Impact of the Ukraine war on illicit financial flows in South Eastern Europe

Cash is king

... and vulnerabilities of illicit finance in the eight Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) after Russia’s invasion of ukraine. More concretely, the study aims to analyze the primary IFFs sources and channels in the region, and identify any emerging trends concerning modus operandi, routes, business models, use of informatio...

Posted on 24 Jul 2023

Author(s): Vanya Petrova

EAS-Obs, EUR-Obs, SEE-Obs

Disruption or displacement? Impact of the Ukraine war on drug markets in South Eastern Europe

Disruption or displacement?

...Recent studies conducted by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) show that the war in ukraine may displace existing drug trafficking routes from and through Ukraine and exacerbate the instability that enables drug trafficking and manufacturing, including in areas not directly connected or exp...

Posted on 17 Jul 2023

Author(s): Ruggero Scaturro

EAS-Obs

The vulnerable millions: Organized crime risks in Ukraine’s mass displacement

The vulnerable millions:

...The risks of human trafficking were quickly flagged by many in the international community since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of ukraine. Conflict has long been recognized as a driver of trafficking, from forced labour and sexual exploitation to the recruitment of child soldiers. Another reason for concern is due to the deeply entren...

Posted on 29 Mar 2023

Sanctions and organized crime, EAS-Obs

New front lines: Organized criminal economies in Ukraine in 2022

New front lines

...ed gold, timber, tobacco, coal, counterfeit/untaxed goods, humans and drugs. At the more politically connected end of the spectrum, corrupt officials and criminal bosses from both countries exploited ukraine’s role as a transit country for Russian gas to siphon off millions of dollars, while Ukraine’s oligarch class exerted a strong grip over the country’s economic, political and information sphere...

Posted on 22 Feb 2023